11/10/2023
2023 DEYR RAINFALL PERFORMANCE
The short rains of Deyr season started off well in most parts of the country during the last week of September. In South-West State, heavy rains resulted in flash floods that destroyed IDPs shelters in settlements in low lying land in Baidoa town.
According to the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources Somalia Automatic Weather Station (AWS) in Baidoa, a substantial amount of rainfall, exceeding 200 mm, lasted for more than 15 consecutive hours, has been recorded.
In general, there is a firm consensus amongst meteorologists that the conjunction of an El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon in the third quarter of 2023 will result in a rare weather event, characterized by above average rainfall in Somalia with a high likelihood of flooding in riverine areas and flash flooding in other parts of the country.
People living in the districts such as Belet Weyne, Afgooye, Jowhar, Baardheere, Luuq, Dollow, Bulo Burto, Jalalaaqasi and Balcad districts are most likely to be affected. The most vulnerable population include internally displaced families who already face acute Water, Sanitation and Hygiene.
7-DAYS COMMUTATED RAINFALL FORECAST (11-17 OCT 2023)
• Moderate rainfall (50-100mm) expected over parts of northern Somalia particularly Waqooyi Galbeed, Sool, Togdheere and Sanaag regions.
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected across most parts of Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Puntland and few areas in Jubaland.
• Dry conditions expected over coastal areas of Somalia and the main in-lands of of Awadal, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions.
• Heavy rains above 100 mm is expected over isolated areas in Waqooyi galbeed region and Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers.
Source Wash Cluster Somalia Abdulkadir Gure
