01/04/2026
It is hard to think back to last year and how different the outlook is going into winter. Last year we were that wet it was extremely difficult to get around most farms without getting bogged, even on a horse!
Here we are in April and as most people are all too aware of, we are extremely dry and in dire straits heading into winter.
As we speak year to date, Armidale has only registered 124mm of rainfall, which equates to a deficit of 178mm on our long term average from Jan-March. How handy would that 178mm be now?
This begs the question that has been on everyone’s lips, will my new pastures survive and how do we manage them from here?
The how long will my pasture survive is a complex one that depends on many factors:
✅Soil type
The heavier soil types (eg Basalts) hold a lot more moisture, therefore will hang on longer. Basalt soils will hold up to 225mm of moisture in the New England which when we take into account evaporation (Average daily evaporation in summer of 6mm), we have around 38 days grace till permanent wilting point.
On the other end of the scale our Granite soils only hold 75mm of moisture which gives us around 14 days.
✅Fallow preparation
As a follow on from soil type, the amount of moisture we start with at the date of sowing will determine how long the germinating seedling will last.
✅Pasture Species
If we learnt anything from 2019 it was that deep rooted perennial species handle prolonged dry spells and droughts better than shallow rooted species. No real surprises there, but not all plants are created equal.
Of our improved grass species, phalaris is the most drought tolerant, followed by Tall Fescue, Cocksfoot and Ryegrass. This is directly related to the root structure and rooting depth of the plants and once again the deepest rooted ones can extract moisture from depth in the soil and hang on longer.
✅Management
This is a big issue and perhaps more important than the rest. How you manage the new pastures will largely determine whether they persist or fail.
Driving around the district at the moment (as expensive as that is!) you can see that newly sown pastures and forage crops are all struggling. They are in various stages, from those that haven’t had enough moisture to germinate, to those that are patchy (up in wetter areas) to those that have fully germinated and are now in moisture stress (especially in the middle of the day).
My best advice would be to forget you own them at the moment and completely resist the temptation to graze them. Grazing plants in dry times will do more damage than droughts alone.
If we take these factors into account, newly sown pastures will survive without any significant rainfall from a matter of weeks to several months.
Prior to 2019 I used to have a rule of thumb that newly sown pastures would last 6-8 weeks on surface moisture and seed reserves before we panicked. Post 2019 I now think that we can extend that to 8-10 weeks. If it is going to be dry, I don’t mind it being early as it makes the plant send roots deeper and gives them resilience.
So how do we manage your improved pastures on the farm if the forecast El Niño continues to eventuate and unfold?
✅Leave a residue
It has been well documented that grazing below 1000kg/ha of Dry Matter in dry spells will cause high mortality in pastures. That is don’t graze them below 5cm, or a match box on its side.
✅Make use of a sacrifice paddock
Pick those paddocks that are due for renewal or are thinning out and park stock in them to feed in. These pastures will get hammered and die out but it allows you to save other more valuable paddocks, as the costs of resowing perennial pastures is expensive.
✅Sell livestock
Whilst prices are still excellent, take advantage and thin out numbers of non essential livestock from the system. Once again this allows you to test paddocks and extend rotation lengths.
✅Be prepared to supplementary feed
This is an expensive exercise and one best handled by a nutritionist or specialist. This brings me to an introduction of Grazag’s newest employee Ed Hiscox who has joined our team as a nutrition specialist, so I would strongly recommend if you are going down this route, make yourself known to Ed and he can point you in the right direction.
It really is a matter of prioritising your pastures when things get dry. Start planning early and stick to those plans and wait for rain. It is what you do with that moisture that will determine how quickly you recover.
