28/08/2023
🏡🌱 Over the next 25 years, based on the State Government Regional Plan review 2023 (ShapingSEQ 2023), City of Moreton Bay’s population is expected to grow from the current 500,000 people by an additional 287,000 people reaching 787,000 people by 2046 (an average growth rate of 1.94 per cent per year).
This growth will require an average of 5,347 new dwellings each year for a total of 123,000 additional dwellings to meet the estimated population growth, as well as increased transport accessibility, job opportunities and essential services.
Make no mistake the next 25 years of growth for Moreton Bay will be different to the past 25 years of growth, presenting challenges and opportunities of a complexity beyond those faced by the region to date.
Increasing fiscal uncertainty, housing affordability pressures and unparalleled changing housing needs and preferences demands a shift – one that truly responds to the changing needs of a fast-growing population.
So why are we growing? There are a number of factors with the draft ShapingSEQ 2023 Update population projections indicating that, 38.7 per cent will come from overseas, 25.4 per cent will come from interstate and 7.8 per cent will come from elsewhere in Queensland.
Of this population, the number of children and youth (0 to 17 years), will decrease as a proportion of the population from 22.6 per cent in 2021 to 20.5 per cent in 2046 and conversely over the same period, the number of older people (65 years and over) will significantly increase as a portion of the population from 15.9 per cent in 2021 to 19.5 per cent in 2046 across SEQ.
Ageing populations have implications for the size of the workforce, economic growth, government revenue and services such as healthcare.
Household sizes and structures are also changing. SEQ is seeing an increase in one-person households from 23.4 per cent in 2021 to 40.5 per cent by 2046, and a higher small household to small dwelling ratio.
The ageing population will contribute to the increased smaller households demand, due to older people’s tendency to live in smaller homes.
Further, extended family households are becoming more common. There has also been a decline in families with dependent children, but an increase in couple only families, especially older couples.
While it is difficult to understand the exact impact of changes in household size to smaller households, it is estimated that each 0.01 per cent fall in persons per household requires around 8,500 additional homes. Housing stock will need to suit the needs and preferences of future residents, including the “household market”.
To achieve the number of required future dwellings we can’t continue to develop out and add to urban sprawl we must utilise the land already developed, with the State target under the draft regional plan also having a target of 70% in fill development (redevelopment of already developed lots or development of undeveloped lots in already urban areas) and 30% greenfield development (development of rural and rural residential lots).
This is partly to ensure development happens close to already serviced infrastructure but also to ensure less environmental impact by not having to clear vegetation which unfortunately happens with greenfield development where vegetation clearing causes fragmentation of green corridors and loss of biodiversity.
The other thing to consider is recognising the changing needs of the growing population, there is necessity for not only more housing but also a diverse range of housing options.
The State Government Growth projections highlight a significant shift in the demographics of South East Queensland.
Not only is the population rapidly increasing, but there is also a dramatic rise in the number of people living alone. (Single person households).
As raised earlier the data indicates that the percentage of one-person households will increase from approximately 23% to 40% by 2046.
This means that even without considering the overall population increase, there is still a significant need for more housing to accommodate the same number of individuals.
To effectively address the needs of a growing Moreton Bay and maintain the desirable lifestyle of the region, it is crucial to increase the housing supply and diversify the available options.
This entails constructing more apartments, townhouses, and terraces to cater to different preferences and requirements.
It is essential to consider the needs of all residents, including the elderly population who may find it difficult to maintain a larger property.
Older individuals should have the opportunity to downsize to more suitable and manageable housing options, such as units or terraces, without being compelled to leave their community.
This is especially important given Councils “Housing Needs Investigation” (HNI) which was endorsed by Council last November highlighting the exact same issues.
According to the Housing Needs Analysis families in Moreton Bay are living in larger, less dense homes than the rest of South East Queensland (SEQ) on average. In fact compared to the rest of SEQ: Moreton Bay has less high density housing (3% vs 11%) and in turn has more low density houses (81% vs 71%).
In 2051 we expect our housing stock will need to be 73% separate houses, 21% medium density (low rise terraces or units), and 6% high density and other housing.
This is due to a number of factors including single-parent households expected to increase from 12-17% by 2051 and Moreton Bay’s population aged over 65 growing at twice the rate as the rest of SEQ which means by 2051, Moreton Bay’s population aged over 65 will have grown by 182% compared to 2016.
Because 75% of homes in the Moreton Bay are large (3+ bedroom) family houses it means we have less 1 and 2 bedroom dwellings than the rest of SEQ this may result in an imbalance of housing required.
This leads to the very real need to look more at “right sizing” than “down sizing”.
More Queenslanders living in a home that is the right size for them could free up housing stock and support connected communities, but this means we need more homes of different sizes available.
Even though 81% of people in Moreton Bay live in separate houses (a building at least 1.5 metres away from the next home), our average household size (the number of people living in a home) is steadily decreasing.
With fewer people living in each home, this should mean that people are living in smaller buildings. Data shows, however, that across Australia, newly built homes are roughly the same size they were ten years ago. This means that a fair chunk of our community are living in homes that they’re not fully using and this is only set to increase as the number of single and couple households increases with an aging population.
What this means is that even people who want to live in a more compact home might not be able find one, because homes that are a different size simply don’t exist in the numbers that buyers and renters need.
Being able to rightsize depends on there being a variety of homes in different sizes and styles across our suburbs, not expecting everyone to want to live in a traditional house and yard, this is the housing lifecycle, different housing styles for different life stages, affordable apartments, town houses or duplexes for first home buyers, young couples, single parents, singles, pensioners, aging singles and couples with larger single dwellings for growing families or inter-generational living as you move through stages of life your housing needs (not wants) move with you.
The idea of rightsizing doesn’t mean that no one gets to live in a large home. A large home suits a lot of people for various reasons – they might have large families, pets, frequent visitors, caring obligations or run businesses from home.
Instead rightsizing means having the ability to choose a different option, like a unit, townhouse, duplex or granny flat, rather than just a house. By supporting housing diversity across our suburbs, everyone has choices available to them.
When people don’t have the option to rightsize, it puts pressure on the whole system. When more people can choose to rightsize, larger homes become available for those who need them.
An increase in housing diversity in your area – which means considered developments that add options like units, terrace houses and townhouses to an area, alongside standalone houses – could mean that you are able to live in the future where you have put down roots for longer.
The majority of older Australians want to continue to live in their neighbourhood as they age. While some will choose and be able to continue to live in their family home, others may want or need to move somewhere smaller, easier to maintain or more accessible for their needs.
If a diverse range of housing isn’t available in their area, they may be forced to move elsewhere, leaving behind communities, friends and family, and regular services like their GPs and hairdressers.
Diverse housing can also help more first home buyers get on the property ladder, buying a smaller property for a lower price. It also can provide more options of safe and enjoyable housing options for people with a disability, living with chronic illness or for people who want a smaller footprint.
When the main option for people looking to buy or rent a home is a standalone house with a yard, people are pushed to live in homes that are larger than they need and spread further out into ever sprawling suburbs. This creates disconnected communities and puts pressure on infrastructure. Housing becomes increasingly unaffordable for everyone because the high demand for standalone houses raises the price.
One impact of this urban sprawl is that people can’t always choose to live in a way that keeps them connected to their communities. People who choose to have children have to move away from their suburbs to find homes they can afford, and older people who need more accessible housing find it’s not available in the place they’ve lived for decades.
Having the choice to rightsize can also mean having the choice to stay connected to community across different stages of life.
Everyone’s housing journey will look different, so making sure a diverse range of housing options are available is an important part of planning for Moreton Bay’s future.
Whilst the state government can legislate the need for more housing diversity, and local governments can put diverse housing plans into action, public support for diverse housing developments can make a big difference to the types of homes that get built in Queensland communities.
The best time to have your say on plans for housing in your area is during the plan-making stage, this is when we have Planning Scheme amendments like our current “Better Housing Amendments” or when we open consultation on the future City of Moreton Bay Planning scheme set to replace the current scheme from 2016 around about 2027.
But you don’t need to wait until 2027, you can also start the conversation about the benefits of housing diversity in your community by talking about it with friends, family and colleagues and help shape a better, more sustainable future for you and your friends and relatives as you progress through life living in the City of Moreton Bay. 🏘️🌟
