19/02/2025
SPRINGWATCH!
Here we are, with just over a week to go before the Meteorological Spring starts, is there any sign of anything Springlike?
Last weeks Summary
“Assuming that the current cold ECM is wrong, because it has no support from any predictive suite, then an average unsettled spell lies ahead and by this time next week, we should all be back to at least average temps if not mild.
Looking further ahead into March, and all suites suggest some pleasant Early Spring weather is likely. IF the C3S charts are right, then March should be one of the best , time will tell, we aren’t out of the woods yet as Northern Blocking still persists.”
Well the ECM was wrong, as we suspected, and we are transitioning to an average unsettled regime and it will be mild – even though it might not feel it in the breeze!
Now that the Stratosphere is out of the equation, with no chance of a SSW, we don’t have a lot to go on.
The Hovmoller agrees with the attached ECMA charts
The MJO is weak and expected to be in the centre on the chart meaning very little or no convection, so that wont drive anything.
Theres no hurricanes or tropical storms to upset the applecart.
We do have a strong T Polar Vortex over Baffin and still some Northern Blocking. This vortex will feed us a strong Westerly flow as our daily blog explained, how long will that go on for?.. The attached ECMA charts expect its influence to weaken, and the high pressure the C3S charts we posted last week are still viable for the Month of March, even if they are inaccurate for the beginning.
SUMMARY
“In like a lion, out like a lamb” appears to be what is tenuously the most likely route. All extended Anomalies support higher pressure, drier and milder after a mobile unsettled start. A slow improvement is likely but isn’t certain. The average unsettled could hang on.
