10/02/2019
UPDATE—In the feverish atmosphere in Thailand following the bombshell events of Friday, coup rumours are swirling around Bangkok, fuelled by sightings of armoured convoys on the move around the city. The military says the troop movements are just for training, and evening put signs on vehicles saying "For Training" to try to dampen speculation.
It is, of course, extraordinary that a country's army should have to put reassuring signs on their armoured vehicles. It's another sign of the damage that decades of military meddling in politics has done to public confidence in the armed forces.
Thais know from bitter experience that when the military starts publicly insisting that no coup is coming, this is often a sign that they are about to seize power again.
The top army leadership, including army commander-in-chief Apirat Konsompong, have been in Munich after being summoned for talks by King Vajiralongkorn.
The talks do not involve dictator Prayut Chan-ocha and the other junta leaders, who have retired from military duties. But the top active duty generals went to Germany.
In a sign that the authorities are worried about an angry backlash after Friday's dramatic events, Matichon reported that police in Pichit province were told to be on standby in case of mass unrest. Sources said they had received intelligence that disturbances were possible in the province.
Unrest could also be sparked if, as widely expected, Thaksin’s Pheu Thai and/or Thai Raksa Chart parties are dissolved by the authorities ahead of the election.
There will be no coup in Thailand unless Vajiralongkorn wants one.
As explained by Paul Chambers of Naresuan University, Vajiralongkorn has firm control of the military. [https://www.newmandala.org/a-rebuke-against-a-sister-and-the-personalising-of-monarchical-control/]
After a decade during which the Eastern Tigers Queen's Guard military faction — led by Prawit Wongsuwan and Prayut — was in the ascendancy, the traditionally more powerful Wongthewan King's Guard faction is dominant once again.
Chambers notes that reshuffles of top military positions overseen by Vajiralongkorn "guarantee his personalised influence across the armed forces for years to come".
The king also has his personal Royal Guard to count on. As Chambers says: "Rachawallop Infantry Unit 904, under the Army’s First Division and First Army Regiment, has evolved since the 1980s to become a praetorian guard for the current sovereign with a force of almost 5000 soldiers. In December 2018, Army Chief Apirat’s son Peerapong was appointed to this unit."
It may seem perplexing that coup rumours are circulating when the country is already ruled by a military junta. But Thailand's generals love coups so much they sometimes stage coups against their own administrations.
As U.S. ambassador Ralph "Skip" Boyce wrote in leaked cable 07BANGKOK311 in January 2007 when bumbling generals were also considering a "re-coup" against the military-installed government:
"Although a coup against one's own government sounds ridiculous, this has happened here before: elected prime minister Thanom launched a coup against his own government in 1971. Thanom dissolved Parliament, banned political parties and strengthened military rule until he was forced to flee the country two years later in the wake of violent protests." [https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07BANGKOK311_a.html]
If a coup were to be launched, it would likely be aimed at abrogating the 2017 constitution and recent election laws, and cancelling the elections due to be held on March 24.
Vajiralongkorn may feel that recent events have thrown the election process into chaos, and he does not want political disarray to overshadow his coronation in early May.
The king may also have lost confidence in Prayut and the junta, and want the King's Guard faction to take charge.
Despite the speculation, there is no indication yet that a coup is imminent in coming days. But there is a widespread sense of fear in Thailand and the kingdom stumbles into uncharted political territory.
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