06/11/2026
This is an update from Michigan Storm Chasers. You can find them on Facebook. A wind driven high risk (MSC level 5 out of 6) has been issued for parts of west Michigan for a squall line moving through later this evening, June 11th, 2026.
There was a lot of pressure on doing this forecast properly with the environment in place. We pondered for hours over the data before coming to the conclusion that a short-fused level 5 risk was indeed necessary for west Michigan. Damaging straight line winds of 60-80 mph are expected in some capacity. For storm development, plenty of instability, low-level shear, and adequate lapse rates are all available, hence an all-hazards risk. Strong spin-up tornadoes cannot be ruled out as our secondary threat. On the flip side, a little bit of uncertainty has crept into the mix. Models keep attempting to mix in a little bit of midday cloud cover, keeping today's high temperatures closer to the low 80s instead of the high 80s. Even a 5° difference can be the difference between one powerful cell, or a collective group of powerful cells. We kid you not, the models keep removing, then putting back the cloud cover. Watch your temperatures out there today. If we can make it closer to 90°F, it bodes well for the atmosphere, but not for us who would be on the receiving end of stronger hazards.
Today is more of a "where will it happen?" instead of "if it will happen?". With such high probabilities and potent ingredients in place, someone is likely to see at least damaging winds over 60 mph. In the wonderful world of probability though, there's still a chance you don't get anything. If a deck of clouds takes over the area for much of the afternoon, storm mode is likely to flip to semi-discrete instead of one long line. Yes, that means some towns will get split by the storms.
Timing is from 7p through 3, all times eastern. Important to remember that no matter the level of risk you are in, probabilities are there for a reason. If you live in the Lower Peninsula this evening, it's best to have ways to receive warning on you at all times.
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