01/02/2022
And here we go... its a new year and although it doesn't feel like it, Mother Nature must've reminded Old Man Winter what time of the year it is. Yes, I'm talking about snow this morning and the threat of accumulating snows for parts of our area on Monday.
How can we be talking about snow when it feels like Spring?
Well, for starters, I would encourage everyone to go outside and enjoy the mild temperatures as a major change to our weather is expected over the next 12 hours or so. A frontal boundary located north and west of the area is on the move and will pass through the tristate area later today. We shouldn't be looking at much rain from this frontal passage, however, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph may be possible later this evening.
Following this frontal passage, temperatures are expected to drop like a rock with many locations expected to be below the freezing mark by sunrise on Monday. Temperatures on Monday will be cold with many locations struggling to get out of the 20s for highs. To make matter worse, wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph throughout the day will make conditions feel much colder with wind chills in the teens and 20s across much of the area.
Since this is our first real blast of frigid air this season, I would like to remind everyone to please dress warmly and limit your exposure to the outdoors. We've been spoiled as of late and tomorrow may come as a shock to many of us. Also, don't forget about your pets and how the cold weather may affect them as well!
Let us talk about snow... as I mentioned in a recent post, around this time of the year it is wise to keep an eye on the potential for an area of low pressure to develop along a frontal boundary that has already passed through our area. These quick forming storm systems can be tricky to predict and can bring accumulating snow to parts of our area with little to no warning.
Well, it just so happens that model guidance is now forecasting an area of low pressure to develop along the frontal boundary that will move through later tonight. This storm system will pass south and east of the tristate area but not after bringing accumulation snows to some of us...
Now let me be clear, this may be a potentially significant event for parts of southern New Jersey, however, the effects in and around the Hunterdon County area will be minimal.
As I see this playing out, precipitation in the form of rain and snow will overspread southern portions of the tristate area overnight into Monday morning. Precipitation is expected to change over to snow by sunrise and could become heavy at times, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches of snow may be possible across extreme southeastern New Jersey with 1 to 3 inches possible north/west of Vineland but south/east of Trenton.
Due to recent warm weather, accumulating snow may be hard to come by as the ground is very warm. There is a scenario where most of the snow accumulations occur in areas that see moderate to heavy snowfall rates.
Further north and west, we are looking at a very sharp cutoff with very little to no snow making it north and west of Interstate 95. We do have some model guidance that may suggest some very light is possible across the Hunterdon County area, however, I wouldn't hold my breath on it. If it doesn't snow, expect it to remain cold and windy with clearing skies late in the day.
After tomorrow's storm system departs the area, temperatures are expected to drop even more with lows in the teens across parts of the area. Sunny skies with highs in the 30s is expected on Tuesday and a cold front may bring a little rain and snow on Wednesday. On Thursday or Friday, there is the potential for a major storm system to move through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. There is a lot of uncertainty with this storm potential but we could be talking about snow for parts of our area.
As I said at the beginning of this post, our weather is changing and things are looking fairly active moving forward. I am going to keep an eye on tomorrow's storm threat and will have an update later in the day if anything changes. If not, I will have updates regarding the snow in southern New Jersey tomorrow morning. As for the threat later in the week, be sure to check back in over the next couple of days for the latest information.
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