08/20/2026
š **EL NIĆO UPDATE: FLORIDA, GET READY FOR A MOODY WINTER!**
Calling Florida weather unpredictable might be the understatement of the century! Just ask Florida State students, who experienced **hurricane days for Helene in September 2024 and snow days only four months later in January 2025.** Tallahassee officially received **1.9 inches of snow**, its second-highest two-day snowfall total on record. Hurricane days and snow days in the same academic year? That is a Florida phenomenon all by itselfāand quite the hands-on weather education without ever leaving campus! š
Now, another interesting weather pattern is developing. A strengthening El NiƱo is underway in the Pacific, with about a **69% chance of reaching record territory** later this fall or early winter.
The forecast mean is around **+2.65Ā°C**, meaning the key region of the tropical Pacific used to measure El NiƱo could become approximately **2.65Ā°Cāor nearly 5Ā°Fāwarmer than its long-term average**. That may not sound terribly impressive, but spread across such a massive area of ocean, it represents an enormous amount of extra heat and would surpass the strongest El NiƱo events in the historical record. Some models go even higher, but Iām sticking with the official forecast meanānot letting one overly excited model send us shopping for an ark just yet. š
So, what could this mean for Florida?
š **Hurricane season:** El NiƱo typically increases wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen. That certainly helpsābut it does not make Florida hurricane-proof. It only takes one storm, so we still keep our plans in place.
š§ļø **Fall and winter:** A stronger southern jet stream can steer more Gulf storm systems across Florida. Translation: a winter that may be **wetter, cloudier, cooler and stormier**, especially during the afternoon when additional clouds and rain help hold temperatures down.
āļø **Severe weather:** Strong El NiƱo winters can increase Floridaās severe-weather and tornado potential. The powerful El NiƱos of **1982ā83 and 1997ā98** produced two of Floridaās most active tornado seasons. That does not guarantee an outbreak this winter, but it certainly gets this meteorologistās attention.
āļø **Could it snow in Florida?** North Florida always has a small opportunity if Gulf moisture and sufficiently cold air arrive at exactly the same time. Central and South Florida? Much more difficultābut not impossible. During the El NiƱo winter of **1977**, snowflakes were reported from Palm Beach and Miami all the way south to Homestead.
**The bottom line:** This El NiƱo could become historic, but it is still a forecastāand forecasts can change. For Florida, it could mean a wetter, cloudier, cooler and occasionally stormier fall and winter.
Iāll keep watching the Pacific and the jet stream so you donāt have toāand I promise not to declare a Florida blizzard six months in advance. š
