03/20/2026
AGRICULTURE & THE FOOD SYSTEM JUST GOT MORE COMPLICATED (Globally)
China quietly made a major move this month that literally no one is talking about. Without any announcement, its Ministry of Commerce told exporters to stop shipping key fertilizers overseas—urea, nitrogen blends, NPK, and potassium.
The reason? Protect domestic supply.
The impact? Global.
At the same time the world was focused on oil disruptions, behind the scenes, this decision removed one of the last major backup sources of fertilizer—right before spring planting (for many).
We don't need these ingredients to feed the nations, but we do need time to adjust. Big Ag farmers have their soil needs documented and need ingredients to amend them. With regenerative agriculture practices, this isn't necessary. Unfortunately most Big Ag companies aren't regenerative.
China produces about 30% of the world’s urea. It also accounts for ~29% of global ammonia production (the base for most fertilizers). Roughly 1 out of every 3 units of nitrogen fertilizer originates in China.
China doesn’t supply all fertilizer to the world, but it supplies enough that when it steps back, the whole system feels it.
The Middle East (another 20–25%) was already blocked due to shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz. Now both sources are offline.
That means over half of global fertilizer supply became inaccessible in just a few weeks. And it’s not just nitrogen. China also restricted potassium (potash)—a key nutrient for crops (though they use a lot of this on their own). Belarus and Russia (other major suppliers) were already limited.
When global prices rise too much, China keeps supply at home, protects its farmers, and lets the rest of the world absorb the shortage. Can you blame them?
Back in February I warned that some of the reasons the recent agricultural orders were being put in place in America was due to war, not due to health and wellness (see glyphosate post).
Do I agree with glyphosate and fertilizer? Not one bit. But I'm not naive enough to believe that the system can be changed overnight without it. We have to deal with the emotional and mental side of the American farmer being immediately cut off from these "tools of the big ag trade" they were counting on, and then they can be efficient in not using them.
In the past, the world had backup supply. But, not anymore. Let's not even talk about the amount of money it will now cost to purchase supplies that are limited. It's projected that some big ag farmers could see a $50,000+ increase in their costs this year.
In 2026 China restricted exports (source gone), the Straight of Hormuz disruptions blocked Middle East supply (route gone), and Europe is producing less due to high gas prices (production down). This creates a full system breakdown, not just a shortage, and prices will skyrocket.
Fertilizer shortages → lower crop yields
Lower yields → higher food prices
Higher prices → global strain
And because of timing, decisions made this spring will show up in fall food prices, so you (the consumer) should prepare for that.
This wasn’t random.
It’s a repeatable pattern:
• Protect domestic agriculture
• Restrict exports when needed
• Let global markets adjust
But this time, the system it depends on is already strained. That’s what makes this moment different.
Scripture tells us to watch.
To discern the times.
This wasn’t just about fertilizer. This was about supply being withheld in a season when the world thinks it needs it most. Spring planting. Seed in the ground. Farmers preparing to produce what will feed nations.
But hear this clearly:
This is not a call to fear.
This is a call to prepare and position.
God has always warned His people before seasons of lack, but they must discern the times first.
Joseph stored grain before famine.
The wise virgins had oil when others did not.
Preparation is not panic—it is obedience.
This is why we do what we do—teach you to take back your food source.
Start buying local. Start growing your own food. Start supporting your local farmer and homesteader. These people don't depend on fertilizer and overseas ingredients to grow food.
This IS the better way. I say it over and over again, but I can't say it too often!
When someone says to me "homesteaders won't save the food system", I chuckle every single time. Because headlines like this show us that, every single time, homesteaders WILL be the ones people turn to as the world continues to spiral in chaos.
