10/05/2024
My predictions for November, and these are based off of TRENDS, the three polls I will talk about in a minute, and the poll/numbers now, compared to the 2020 and 2016 races, at this EXACT date.
Hillary had a commanding 10 point national lead and 6 point swing state lead at this time. Biden was at 7 nationally and had virtually the same swing state lead at 5.5. except.
I will start by saying I believe he wins Michigan, but maybe loses Wisconsin. Michigan is partly Due to the only Arab Mayor in the state of Michigan, giving Trump the full endorsement, i believe he takes it there.
Looking at the BY FAR, most accurate polls, which are Trafalgar, Atlas and Rasmussen (they have nailed almost every swing state in 2016 and 2020, and the National), Trump has the momentum by over a 0.3 point weekly movement over last two weeks. They have him up nationally by 2 and 1 (Trafalgar only does state). The three on average have Trump up 6 in Arizona, 5 in Georgia, 2 in Nevada, 4 in NC, 3 in PA, 2 in Wisconsin and 3.5 in Michigan.
They also have the race virtually a dead heat in VIRGINIA with Harris up 1 or less.
The best is you can see the entire breakout for these polls, as to which party answered the most to the exact percentage, the race, age and complete demographic breakdown. And on average, Democrats are polled and answer polls more often.
Amongst Independent voters, Trump has a commanding lead of 57 to 39 with 4% still undecided or other. This is up from his 56 to 42 lead two weeks ago. Meaning undecideds are breaking Trumps way.
A poll in which black men were asked if they would vote for Harris, only 53% answered YES.
In the same group, 33 % said they would likely vote for Trump.
Among that group, the "likely voters" said Harris at 55% and Trump at 30%.
Hispanic registered voters broke for Trump 50% to Harris 44%
Hispanic "likely voters" broke 51% to 47% for Trump.
Jewish voters have trended Trumps way for 23 consecutive weeks and he is seeing an 11 point increase in this group as well.
Women he did the worst with 63% to 39%
BUT with likely women voters, it's 59% to 41%
Men are the biggest group for him at 66% to 33% and likely voters in this group it 63% to 35%.
The most fascinating statistic is that EVERY demographic other than black women (Harris 93%, but they have the lowest voters turnout as well) have Trended towards Trump over the last three weeks. Black women has stayed the same.
Biden received 88% of the overall black vote in 2020 and 67% of the Hispanic vote. With Trump DECIMATING those numbers against Harris, she has ZERO shot at winning this election.
We are looking at an upcoming electoral LANDSLIDE and a POPULAR VOTE WIN for Trump for the first time. He will cruise in over 300 electoral votes and receive around 71 Million votes as will she, but slightly less than him.
VOTE!!!
